Good morning,
The model went 4-4 SU on series picks in Round 1. The favorites it had real conviction on (>57%) all advanced; the four series within a coin flip all went the other way.
Takeaway: the calibrated playoff model nailed the matchups it actually had a read on, and was appropriately humble in the four it didn't. Notable: ANA over EDM looks like an upset on paper but the model already rated Anaheim slight favorites (Issue: this was the only series where the lower-seeded team came in with the model's blessing).
Round 2 Standings Through May 4
East — CAR leads PHI 2-0 (G1 CAR 3-0, G2 CAR 3-2 OT). Hurricanes have done it without giving Philly a home game yet.
East — BUF/MTL opens tomorrow (May 6).
West — COL leads MIN 1-0 (G1 9-6 COL, May 3) — the wildest scoreline of the postseason so far. Game 2 is tonight.
West — VGK leads ANA 1-0 (G1 3-1).
Tonight's Slate: MIN @ COL — Game 2 (10:00 PM ET)
Model: COL 67.7% / MIN 32.3%
Market (betmgm): COL -200 (66.7%) / MIN +165 (37.7%)
Edge: COL +3.84pp
What the model sees
Table of different metrics
G1 → G2: what changed
Game 1's 9-6 final was an outlier even against the model's own forecast (it had projected 6.1 total goals; the actual was 15). For Game 2, projected total drops to 4.82 with Quartile-50 at the same — a much more typical playoff line. The model is essentially saying: don't expect a repeat of the fireworks from game 1; expect Colorado's structural edge to show up in a tighter game.
Excited to see what happens tonight. As always, feel free to respond to this email with any questions or comments (I read every one!)